The Impact Stat - Evaluating Production in Baseball

Impact Stat with Salary = PRODUCTION COST!

2009-11-19T14:09:00.000-08:00

Hello baseball fans and fellow stat heads!

2 visualisations today:

1) PRODUCTION VALUE
Click on the image below to see the real 2009 PRODUCTION VALUE of you favourite MLB players. I've calculated this using The Impact Stat as described on this blog vs Player's Salary.

Who is of better value? Derek Jeter or Adrian Gonzalez? Pujols or Mauer?

Go ahead, click the image below and take a look for yourself!

2) VALUE QUADRANT
Any of you in a pool, looking to sign a free agent or make a trade this off-season? If you want to know where the real value players are click on the Value Quadrant below. Players in the top left are the ones you're looking for!

Comments are welcome!

Thanks - Aneez
aneezkanji@hotmail.com

Coming Soon...

2009-11-18T12:35:00.000-08:00

I'm adding salary data to The Impact Stat. We'll soon see where the real value in MLB players is.

In the meantime, stay tuned, and browse my past posts.

Aneez

Impact Stat at the end of 2009

2009-10-18T15:37:00.000-07:00

It's that time of year again when I crunch through the season end MLB numbers and evalute the best batters in the Majors! The new vizualisations are courtesy of Tableau. I hope you enjoy them. Onto the numbers...

Once again the Impact Stat has clearly highighted:

- why Mauer and Puljous should be MVP in each league.

- why those up for consideration don't really stand a chance. (Sorry Jeter!)

- a few surprises from a Prince to a Gonzo!

- Adam "no heart" Dunn - Could he really be in the top 10 across both Leagues?!

Let's start with mile high pop-up view of all the batters with 502 at bats (minumum requirement for batting title) in 2009...

Notes:

i) The blue and red vertical lines represent a .264 and .385 average

ii) The curve on left (grey/blue) is each player's Batting Average

iii) The end points on the right represent total Impact

iv) The colour transition on each line is where OBP occurs

As you look at the image below you'll see right away that a few Impact lines extend much further that the others. At the top is Mauer, a few rows down is Puljous leading the MLB in Impact! Check the detailed image extract further down to see how Jeter, Prince, A Gonzales, and Dunn have done.

(click on each image to enlarge)

The image below show just a few of the players above. Email me for a full list @ aneezkanji@hotmail.com

Ok, so now we know we now how the top players in terms of At Bats did, but it begs the question of how each performed. Here is an image for your viewing pleasure and it includes ALL at bats for the year. It is organized in the same manner.

You'll notice that in terms of Impact, the teams you would expect to make the playoffs have done so. The only expection being the mighty Phillies.

Note: i) Impact by team doesn't take into account team's pitchers who obviously contribute to a successful playoff run.

...and finally, a map showing Impact, just because I could! (Size = Impact, Colour = Win percentage. Red < .500; Green > .500 (the darker the shade, the further to the end of the scale.)

Hope you enjoyed that, let me know your thoughts, feedback, any errors you spot, and if you want to know about any other players!

Thanks - Aneez

Impact Stat @ the 2009 All Star Break !

2009-07-15T13:42:00.000-07:00

It's that time of the year again where I run The Impact Stat for MLBers! (As always refer to the methodology page for calculations)

For the All Star break, I've looked at players who have had at least 250 total plate appearances up to this point, along with each team's performance, plus a look at the Toronto Blue Jays line-up.

Here goes...

(Click on each image to expand)

Players by Average - This image shows the Top 30 players by Batting Average (AVG blue dots), along with their On Base Percentage, (OBP, red dots) and their IMPACT stat in the white bars. It's obvious to see that MVP candidate A Puljos is not only leading in OBP but also way ahead in IMPACT with an average of .544! That means he makes a positive contribution (IMPACT) better than every 2 plate appearances!

Players by IMPACT - This image shows the Top 30 players by IMPACT with A Puljos leading the way. The best way to read this is to look at the gap between OBP (red dots) and the top of the IMPACT bars. The bigger the gap, the better the IMPACT (A Puljos, C Jones). Those who have an IMPACT lower than OBP have not contributed in the form of positive outs like Sacrifice Flies or Sacrifice Bunts (K Youkilis, C Utley).

Team IMPACT - The teams below are organized by win percentage. Washington on the left and MLB leaders Dodgers on the right. As you can see the teams on the right have the highest batting averages, high OBPs, but also have high IMPACT stats which means they have the ability to keep the lineup moving and generate runs. This is most evident as the Top 5 teams OBP is even higher than most other teams IMPACT as a whole!

Toronto Blue Jays - As a lifelong Jays fan, I always look at how the team is doing. I've taken a look at the Jays who have had at least 250 visits to the plate. The graph below shows the players in order of AVG. The player with the best IMPACT is surprising!

It's Lyle Overbay! He has the lowest AVG of the 8 players, however his IMPACT is helped by his high OBP and additional positive outs. Marco Scutaro is also up leading the team in IMPACT. It's interesting to see the Alex Rios has a lower IMPACT than his OBP!

Please share any comments you may have!

Thanks - Aneez

Impact Stat 2008: Toronto Blue Jays

2009-01-12T17:10:00.000-08:00

The 2008 Toronto Blue Jays listed below.

David 'Ecks-Factor' Eckstein lead the Jays in Impact in 2008, and also had a decent Batting Average to back that up. His CH5 was also an impressive .106, leading the team of active players!

Matt Stairs, the Jays player with the biggest 2008 CH5 was traded to the Phillies late in the season and was instrumental in helping the team win the World Series.

Other notes on this team:
-V Wells who was injured for 1/3 of the season was still in the Top 5 of overall Impact and most traditional batting stats.
- A Rios, who had a great BA of .291, only had a .056 CH5 which placed his total Impact for the team in the bottom half of all players.

Go Jays in 2009!

Impact Stat 2008: by Team

2009-01-12T17:00:00.000-08:00

Below is the 2009 Impact Stat and CH5 (Net Impact) by team.

The strongest team at the plate in terms of traditional stats were the Texas Rangers leading the way in BA, SLG, and OPS.

I've highlighted the 2 teams who played in the World Series, both had below average batting stats, however with CH5 they had just about average batting stats, and almost identical Impact Stats! You'll notice that these teams did not have the highest Impact Stat, that honour went to the Boston Red Sox with .378 Impact.

You'll also notice that the 2008 World Series Champions had the highest Net Impact in the majors! The Clubhouse High 5's were certainly in season in 2008 for the Phillies!

Impact Stat 2008: by Player

2009-01-12T16:47:00.001-08:00

Posted below are the top 40 players in MLB by Impact Stat. I've also included a new stat called 'Net Impact' which is the Impact minus Batting Average. This tells you the positive outcomes of a plate appearance aside from a hit. Some baseball fans I've spoken to refer to 'Net Impact' as the "Clubhouse High 5", so I'll refer to it as the 'CH5' from time to time as well.

The green highlights below show stats in the top 10 of the category, the gold highlights show the top stat in each. As you can clearly see Albert Pujols is head and shoulders above everyone else in both BA and Impact. What I found most interesting was his CH5 (Net Impact). Even though his BA is top of the league, his CH5 is also at the top of the table as well with a CH5 of .170, meaning when he didn't get a hit, he still contributed to the team in a positive way more so than everyone else in the Majors!

The only expection is Adam Dunn who had a CH5 of .177. His BA was a mere .236, if this could be bought up a few points, Adam Dunn would be a very valuable addition to any team!

(P/PA is pitches per plate appearance, I've included it for my own interest.)

The Impact Stat at the All Star Break

2008-07-16T20:44:00.000-07:00

Hello!

You'll find a few summary tables below of the Impact Stat at the All Star break, here are a few notes to go along with them:

P Burrell - PHI - 125 out of 300 in BA, however in the top 10 in every other category, 21 doubles, 23 Homeruns, and league leading 69 walks, with 6 intentional. Number 9 in Impact!

D Young - WSH - 108th in BA, 183th in SLG, 108 in OPS, however 12 in Impact. Why? Only 50 games and 150 at bats, however in just 50 games he has 28 Walks, 4 intentional. Over a 95 game stretch those walk numbers would essentially double putting him near the MLB lead!

Toronto Notes:
L Overbay - Top in OBP and Impact, heavily due to incredible 51 walks!

V Wells and A Rios ahead of only injured A Hill, injured S Stewart and R Barajas who leads the team in SLG, and not far off the RBI lead with fewer games played.

All Stars v Top 300 Batters in At Bats:
OBP: .374 v .337
SLG: .512 v .423
BA: .297 v .267
OPS: .887 v .760
IMPACT: .396 v .355

Impact Stat 2008 - Rating the Blue Jays

2008-07-16T20:41:00.000-07:00

Impact Stat 2008 - Rating the All Stars!

2008-07-16T20:38:00.000-07:00

Impact Stat 2008 - Top 300 Players by At Bats at the All Star Break

2008-07-16T20:37:00.001-07:00

2008 All Star Break Summary

2008-07-16T13:47:00.000-07:00

Hello Baseball and Stats fans,

The Impact Stat has been updated, please find your All Star Edition in the table below!

The teams have been ranked by win/loss percentage, the next columns show the ranking for Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, Slugging, On-Base+Slugging and finally IMPACT!

Notes:
- The LA Angels of Anahiem are not even close to leading any of the offensive categories, they are not even close to leading the Impact Stat either - yet they have the best record in baseball! (That's numbers for ya!)
- The Rangers of Texas are leading in BA, Slugging, OPS, and even Runs Scored, yet they sit 7.5 games out of first! They are 3rd on the Impact Ranking (That's numbers for ya!)
- The National League average trails in all categories, yet the Impact is 0.003 points higher than the American League average.
- The Cubs and the Mets boast the highest differential when comparing Impact to OBP. It's no surprise then that once they get on base, they are moving runners along. Cubs are in first, and the Mets are only a half game out at this point.
- Looking at my Toronto Blue Jays, I was surprised to see that they rank 8th in terms of Impact. However, they are low on the list in SLG, OPS, they have grounded in a league leading 101 double plays which doesn't help to move the few runners along that they do have. The Jays are also near the bottom when it comes to batting with runners in scoring position (ie, they get runners to 2nd and 3rd, but they don't cash them in!)

Aneez

Run Production: IMPACT STAT vs Batting Average 2007

2008-03-28T20:44:00.000-07:00

Since the point of baseball is to score runs, I've taken a look at how the number of runs per team in 2007 measures against the IMPACT STAT and Batting Average.

The following table shows all teams ranked by number of Runs for 2007 (R-Runs).
'R-IMPACT' is the numbered ranking of the Impact Stat.
'R-BA' is the numbered ranking of Batting Average.
'I-BA' is the difference of Impact minus Batting Average.
'R' is total number of Runs Scored in 2007.

Observations:
- Of the Top 10 run producing teams, 9 are in the Top 10 for Impact Stat, 8 are in the Top 10 for Batting Average. Seattle ranks 3rd for Batting Average, however only 12 for Runs Scored, and 17th for Impact!

- The Top 10 Impact Teams scored an average of 844 runs in 2007, where the Top 10 teams in Batting Average scored 833 runs.

- The average increase from Batting Average to IMPACT was 0.088 (88 points). The Top 10 Teams in Impact had an average of 92 points, while the Bottom 10 had an average of 86 points. This may not seem like a big margin, however, considering that the Top 10 Teams already have a higher batting average, not only are they doing more at the plate with hits, but they are also doing more at the plate with walks, sac flies. etc!

Click the table to enlarge:
You may say, "Batting average and Impact are quite close, so what's the point of all this?". In creating this statistic, I was looking for a way to measure a batter in a team setting. Given the following scenario:

Batter 1: Double
Batter 2: Sacrifice Hit - runner to 3rd
Batter 3: Sacrifice Fly - runner scores
Batter 4: Strike Out

In Scenario 2, Batters 1,2, and 3 would all get 'high-fived' upon returning to he dugout. Batter 2 did just as much to produce the run, as Batters 1 and 3. The IMPACT STAT gives credit for this.

Aneez

2007 Impact Stat by Team!

2008-03-24T18:29:00.001-07:00

This posting will examine the IMPACT STAT by team during the 2007 MLB season.

(click on tables to enlarge them)

It has been suggested that the NL would have more Intentional Walks (IBB) and more Sacrifice Hits (SH) because of the pitcher being in the batting line-up. It has also been suggested that because of this the number of runs scored in the AL would be much higher. I've crunched some numbers and here's what I have found:

This suggests that the difference in the way the game is played over a 162 game schedule does not have a major difference in the total number of runs scored.

Examining the two teams that played in the 2007 World Series also shows that according to the Impact Stat and number of RBI, the 2 teams were quite evenly matched. (Note: BOS swept the Series in 4 games outscoring COL 29-10!)

The next table shows each team's IMPACT STAT for 2007. The data to the right of each team name shows the ranked position of each batting stat (ie Boston ranked 6th in Batting Average, 2nd in On Base Percentage, 6th in Slugging, 3rd in On Base+Slugging, 2nd in Impact)

Those extra National League IBB and Sac Hits seem to make quite an impact as, both the NL and AL batters had an overall IMPACT STAT of .356!

A Quick Blue Jays IMPACT Summary

2008-03-12T12:06:00.000-07:00

This is in response to a few queries on what the Jays IMPACT was during 2007.

Since the original posting only examines batters with at least 502 at bats, the amount needed to qualify for the batting title (ie highest batting average), Matt Stairs did not qualify as he only had 357 at bats.

The Jays overall IMPACT for 2007 was .343, compared to the Yankees .383 and Boston .382.

The Jays ranked 26th in the MLB while NY and Boston were 1,2. I'll be posting more on each MLB team after Easter.

Here is the 'IMPACT' for some Blue Jays batters:

F Thomas .389
M Stairs .385
T Glaus .382
G Zuan .379
A Rios .368
A Hill .346
L Overbay .330
V Wells .319
R Johnson .316
J MacDonald .309
A Lind .289

The Impact Stat - Methodology

2008-03-08T08:30:00.000-08:00

As a baseball fan, and close follower of the game I have always been puzzled by the statistics highlighting an individual batter's offensive production. Baseball is a team game, where each batter's ultimate success of circling the bases and crossing home-plate is intrinsically linked to the batters before or after them in the lineup.

The goal of every batter should be to keep the lineup moving. This has been cited as one of the reasons of the Boston Red Sox success in 2007.

Here are the four most popular calculations along with my critique of each, followed by my idea for a new method of calculating production:

Batting Average (BA): Total Hits/Total at-bats
The BA is the oldest, most 'pure', and most simple of the calculations. It weighs all hits equally. A single is just as valuable as double or a homerun. The BA however excludes Walks which can be just as producitve as a single, and in the right situation (which is explained futher on this page) a walk is even more valuable than a single.

On Base Percentage (OBP): (Total Hits + Walks + Hit by pitch) / (At bats + Walks + hit by pitch + sacrifice flies)
The OBP is a better calcuation than the BA as it takes into account walks, and hit by a pitch. However Sacrifice Flies is added into denominator which penalizes a batter. I feel that a sacrifice fly is just as strategic as a sacrifice bunt and should be excluded from this calculation.

Slugging (S): (singles + (2x doubles) + (3x triples) + (4x homeruns) / At bats
Slugging factors for the number of bases achived during each at bat. The more bases achieved per at bat, the better. The closer the runner is home plate, the better the chances of scoring a run. I agree that when comparing to singles to homeruns, there is no contest - homeruns are much more valuable than singles. However it can be argued that depending on the situation, there is no real difference between a double and a triple. I'll explain my view further on this page.

OBP+S: This is simply straight addition of the above two statistics. This statistic does not really tell me much more new information of a batters plate performance, it just seems to serve as 'eye-candy' for fans looking for a number close to 1.000

As I mentioned earlier, these stats are mainly individual, and have limitations.

I've looked over other statistics which take into account other factors such as runners on base, runners in scoring position, facing lefties or righties, taking into account the feild, pitch count and others. These stats breakdown the situations too much, and an overall picture of performance cannot be taken.

THE IMPACT STAT
The Impact Stat takes into account everything a batter does at home plate to move along the batting line up, even if it includes an out. As a fan watching the game each of the following events keeps the inning alive and leads to the chance of a run being scored.

The Impact Stat is calucated by adding the below factors divided by Total Plate Appearances:

Hits: Whether a single/double/triple/homerun each hit weighed the same, similar to calcualting batting average. As an observer of the game, I tend to find very little overall difference when a batter hits a double or a triple. If someone was on base ahead of them, generally that runner will score. If the next batter gets a hit, even a single, generally runner on 2nd or 3rd (scoring position) will score.

Walks: Walks are weighed the same as a hit. The batter has done their job by keeping the lineup moving and in most cases a walk will increase the pitch count, and reduce the number of batters a pithcer faces. During the later innings of a game when the starting pitcher is nearing the maximum pitch count of normally 100 pitches forcing a walk could end the pitchers game early.

Sacrifice Flies/Hits: This is viewed in a negative manner in the OBP calculation. A Sacrifice Fly /Hit / Bunt generally results in runner moving to a better scoring position, or scoring a run.

Hit By a Pitch: Getting hit by a 90+ mph pitch does a bit more than tickle. Like a walk it gets a runner on base, and moves along the lineup.

Intentional Walks: Intentional walks are already counted by MLB under 'walks', however I thought it would be important to essentianly give 'extra credit' for an intentional walk as the batter moves along the line up twice as fast than any other at bat. Basically you get two batters for the price of one. USA today had an insightful article about intentional walks to Barry Bonds a few years ago.

Here is how the Impact Stat compared to the Batting Average | OBP | SLG | OBP+S in 2007 for the American League (click to enlarge):

Notes:
- Battters displayed have at least 502 total plate appearances
- Pitches Faced At Bat (PFAB) for my own personal interest. I rate 4.0 or higher as excellent as you are actually wearing the pitchers down and facing good pitches
-The leader in each category is highlighted in dark green, and the next best 9 or 10 in light green.

Highlights of The IMPACT STAT:
5th - J Posada ranks within the Top 10 of each of the categories, showing him as a consistent threat at the plate

4th - A Rodriguez, the AL's MVP was first in SLG, and was ahead of Ortiz by just .001 in OPS, however his batting average is not within the top 10 and his overall Impact is behind Ortiz by .017 points.

3rd - Batting Title holder M Ordonez had a league leading batting average of .363 and falls 3rd in the Impact Category

2nd - V Guerrero falls within the top 10 in each category, and although he doesn't lead any specific one, he places 2nd for Impact.

1st - D Ortiz, contender for AL MVP, and batting title shows that he posed the biggest threat of any player at the plate causing an IMPACT .468 of the time!

Other Noteables:
- C Granderson fell within the Top 10 of Slugging and OPS (lots of triples), however his overall Impact ranked 40th.

- M Ramirez didn't place in the Top 10 for any of the traditional batting statistics, however he places in spot 8 for IMPACT, showing he is a bigger threat at the plate that what his batting average and other stats show.

- Boston have an incredible 7 players in the Top 40, NYY and DET have 5 each, LAA and CLE have 4 each.

I will expanding my research in the coming days and weeks so stay tuned!

Please send any feedback to aneez.kanji@hotmail.com

Thanks - Aneez Kanji